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Surprisingly Weak Ukrainian Defenses Help Russian AdvanceUkrainian trenches Ukrainian trenches Rudimentary Ukrainian trench lines outside Avdiivka, in an area claimed by Russia. But there’s another reason the Kremlin’s troops are advancing in the area: poor Ukrainian defenses. These trench lines lack many of the additional fortifications that could help slow Russian tanks and help defend major roads and important terrain. 2 miles Pavlivs’ke Novofedorivka Robotyne Russian fortifications Russian-claimed control Verbove Russian defenses shown below Held by Russia Novoprokopivka Romanivs’ke 2 miles Pavlivs’ke Novofedorivka Russian-claimed control Russian fortifications Verbove Russian defenses shown below Held by Russia Romanivs’ke Russian-claimed control Pavlivs’ke Novofedorivka Russian fortifications Verbove Russian defenses shown below Held by Russia Romanivs’ke 2 miles Sources: Satellite image from Planet Labs; Russian-controlled territory (as of Feb. 29, 2024) from the Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project; Russian fortifications based on data from Brady Africk. Satellite imagery from February shows the multilayered Russian defenses to the west of Verbove, with thousands of shell craters visible in the surrounding fields.
Persons: Avdiivka, Soloviove, Berdychi Stepove, Krasnohorivka, Russia Berdychi, Kyiv’s, Russia Novoprokopivka, Pavlivs’ke, Brady Africk, Verbove, , , Serhiy Hrabskyi, They’d, Denys Shmyhal, Volodymyr Zelensky, Zelensky’s, Paroinen, Mr, Hrabskyi, ” Mr, Oleksandra Mykolyshyn Organizations: Planet Labs, The New York Times Russian, Ukrainian Army, Russia Berdychi Stepove, Institute for, American, The New York Times, Black Bird Group, Russian Army Locations: Avdiivka, Russia, Ukrainian, Ukraine, Russia Russian, Verbove, Russian, U.S, Moscow, Donetsk, Ivano, Frankivsk, shoring
But a Finnish military analyst said that so far Russia's defenses had not been broken. The push from Ukraine is part of a gruelling attempt to defeat Russia's formidable "Surovikin line" of defences and disrupt its access to occupied Crimea. That was the case in late 2022 when Ukraine was able to recapture vast amounts of northeastern Ukraine after routing Russian forces around Kharkiv. AdvertisementAdvertisementThere is debate among military analysts about whether Russia would be able to mount a fightback if Ukraine does achieve a decisive breakthrough. However, he said that "incompetence is a big factor which can have significant effects, at least locally" referring to the missteps and miscalculations that have been a recurrent problem for Russia's military during the invasion.
Persons: Emil Kastehelmi, Kastehelmi, Gian Gentile Organizations: Service, Ukraine's, Black Bird Group, Rand Corporation Locations: Finnish, Russia, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Zaporizhzhia, Robotyne, Crimea, Kharkiv
Destruction near the village of Robotyne, in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, late last month. For their part, Ukrainian military officials refrained from making any sweeping claims. Ukrainians forces enjoyed surprising successes earlier in the war by holding Kyiv, the capital, and repelling Russian forces at the end of March last year. The Ukrainian military aims to reclaim land in the south and east of the country. To reach that city, Ukrainian forces would have to fully break through the defenses around Verbove and then breach additional layers.
Persons: Oleksandr Shtupun, Daniel Berehulak, Michael Kofman, Rob Lee, Volodymyr Zelensky, Gen, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Zelensky Organizations: Ukrainian Army, Black Bird Group, The New York Times, Presidential Press Service, Russian Locations: Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Verbove, Russian, Moscow, Kyiv, Dmytrivka, Azov, Melitopol, Crimea, Tokmak, Bakhmut, Donetsk
Ukrainian forces, churning slowly forward after breaching Russia’s initial defensive lines in the occupied south, are turning their attention to breaking through in another heavily defended patch of territory. In recent days, military analysts say, the Ukrainian Army has been battling to break through Russian positions near a village called Verbove, about six miles east of the village of Robotyne, which its fighters retook last week. The Black Bird Group, a volunteer organization that analyzes satellite imagery and social media content from the battlefield, said Monday that Ukrainian soldiers had cleared obstacles to reach Russian infantry fighting positions on the outskirts of Verbove. But analysts said that does not necessarily mean they have secured the territory, in an offensive that has met fierce resistance and made progress in small steps and at a high cost in casualties and equipment.
Organizations: Ukrainian Army, Black Bird Group Locations: Robotyne, Verbove
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